TARIFFS, COFFEE COSTS, & STONE CREEK COFFEE

Volatility characterizes the global coffee landscape at this particular point in time. Coffee has always been a fairly dynamic commodity, but financial trends, production factors, and tariffs have ushered in a new era of concern and unprecedented cost implications. What does that mean for the daily consumer? If things don't change rapidly, it could mean continued escalation of prices for both coffee beans and coffee drinks. Let's take a quick look at how we got here.

First, the cost of green (raw) coffee has grown dramatically over the last year and a half. The commodity price of coffee is currently almost triple the 10-year average commodity price. That means that roasters are paying almost 3x what they were for commodity-grade coffee 2 years ago. Now, as a specialty coffee roaster & certified B Corp, we don't buy commodity-grade coffee. We buy coffee at more sustainable, premium prices in exchange for higher quality. However, almost all specialty coffee is still priced in relation to the commodity price. So when the commodity price triples, the specialty prices are going to follow suit. 

There are many factors that either directly play into this or at least get brought up in the rhetoric. Those include:

• Climate volatility. Brazil and Vietnam—two of the biggest producers—have been hit with erratic weather. We're talking droughts, unexpected cold snaps, and now flooding in key growing regions. That kind of instability wrecks harvests and spooks the market.
• Rising production costs. Labor, fertilizer, fuel—it's all up, especially in origin countries where inflation is brutal. Even if yields were strong, it’s just more expensive to farm, process, and ship coffee right now.
• Logistics chaos. Red Sea attacks, port bottlenecks, container shortages—global shipping still hasn’t stabilized post-COVID. That hits coffee hard since it's a long-haul import commodity.
• Speculation. Hedge funds and commodities traders are throwing money into coffee futures like it’s a tech stock. The moment someone whispers “drought in Brazil,” they pile in, and the price runs even faster.
• Origin transitions. Some countries are pulling acreage out of arabica because it’s riskier and harder to grow. Others are shifting to higher-margin crops altogether. Long term, that tightens supply, especially of high-quality stuff.

All of this adds up to the same story: less stability, more cost, more risk. And when the C-market is this twitchy, prices go haywire—even before we factor in the tariff bomb.

Now, over the last few months, we've been tracking the financial impact of newly imposed tariffs on coffee and related goods. The hit is real and growing fast. Our most recent coffee container came with an extra $17,000 in unexpected fees. And if the current trajectory holds, we’re looking at a 7%+ increase in our total operating costs by the end of summer. If you want to put that in cold, hard dollars, that's roughly $1,000,000 in unexpected costs, just as a result of the tariffs.

We're not sharing this to complain. We're sharing this because transparency is part of who we are, and because we need to talk about how we respond. Last year, we were able to celebrate a full recovery following the COVID pandemic—a crisis nobody chose. The future at Stone Creek Coffee was bright. Today, our development path is clouded by a new crisis, one imposed on us by what I believe is irresponsible government administration. While we are disappointed in what has brought us to this point, we will continue to exercise our agency in this world. We will act in accordance with our convictions.

We’re not going to solve this by cutting corners. Not on quality. Not on sustainability. Not on how we care for our people. As a Certified B Corp, we are committed to operating in a way that uplifts our team, supports farmers, and does right by the planet. That doesn't change, no matter how challenging things get.

We do understand that further price escalation stings for the end consumer. We feel it too—every line item, every shipment, every recalculated margin. But if we want to keep doing this the right way, if we want to keep delivering high-quality, sustainably sourced, relationship-based coffee, and raising our baristas, bakers, and production workers' pay to match cost of living increases, then price adjustments in the coming weeks and months are part of the reality we’re all facing.

We’ll do everything we can to keep those increases minimal, transparent, and fair. We’ll continue offering seasonal promotions and discounts, like our gift card sales and our 5-pound bag promos, as a way to help you stretch your dollar without compromising on what’s in your cup. And most importantly, we’ll keep showing our math. No smoke and mirrors, no corporate sleight of hand—just real talk about real costs.

This is a hard moment. But it’s not the end of the story. Stone Creek Coffee has weathered tough seasons before, and we’ve always come out stronger, not because we found a shortcut, but because we doubled down on who we are, our care for our employees, and our care for you.

We’re grateful you’re with us. Thanks for standing alongside a small business doing big things the right way.